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Boo
11-25-2006, 07:00 PM
Below is an article about Travis Lutter and Matt Serra accessing their chances at beating the current champions.

What do you guys think?

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THEY'RE TUF, BUT ARE THEY CHAMPIONS?

Now that Travis Lutter and Matt Serra have been presented their crowns as the new kings of TUF Season 4, the question looming on everyone’s horizon is, “Are these two men ready for the champions in each of their respective weight classes?”

In his TUF 4 finale fight, Travis Lutter had about as close to a Bobby Southworth deemed ‘Flawless victory’ as any fighter could hope for. Lutter did exactly what he said he would do. He closed the distance between himself and Cote, got the takedown, and finished Patrick with the armbar. I don’t even think that Cote landed a single punch in the short length of that fight. To his credit, no one that Lutter fought in Season 4 even came close to beating him. I give Travis all of the credit that he deserves.

That being said, though, who did Lutter fight on TUF that is as quality of a fighter as Middleweight Champ Anderson Silva? Better yet, which fighters has Travis faced and beaten in his career that are at Silva’s level?

To me the answer to this question is no one. The best competition Lutter has fought in his career is probably Matt Lindland, and he submitted Lutter in the 2nd round.

I am in no way debasing Lutter’s skills as a fighter, though. Lutter has proven himself to be a worthy competitor to fight in the UFC, but I personally don’t see him becoming a middleweight champion anytime soon. I’m not saying that he doesn’t deserve a title shot – that was part of his incentive to do the show – but I am saying that if Lutter walks away with a victory over Silva; whether by submission, knockout or decision I will be astounded. I am not trying to take anything away from Lutter; I just don’t think that he’s in the same league as Rich Franklin or Anderson Silva.

When Anderson Silva smashed Chris Leben in under a minute, I was surprised but not shocked. When Silva smashed Rich Franklin just as dominantly in just under three minutes, I was stunned and definitely impressed. If Lutter beats Anderson Silva, I will be completely dumbstruck.

In my mind, Travis Lutter has about as much of a chance of beating Anderson Silva as Harold Howard from the old-school UFC does of beating Tim Sylvia. It’s always possible, but highly unlikely. Not that Lutter isn’t a stud fighter, but Silva is a beast of a man at 185 pounds and if Travis can’t get him to the ground it will be Silva’s third quick fight in the UFC.

What Lutter does bring to the table are submissions, though, and although Silva is a BJJ blackbelt under the Nogueira brothers, he has been submitted a couple of times. Granted these submissions have been somewhat bizarre ones – like a flying scissor heel hook – but they fall under the broad category of submission losses nevertheless.

As we have seen in his past performances, Lutter is a submission specialist and if he gets you even close to a bad position he will finish you 9.8 times out of 10. The Silva/Lutter fight somewhat reminds me of Tim Sylvia vs. Jeff Monson. Everyone in the universe knows what each fighter is trying to do; it just comes down to who forces his will upon the other man more successfully. The Sylvia/Monson fight also showed that a striker with a good sprawl could control the fight in its entirety. It should be no secret to anyone after two big KO wins in a row that Silva is going to do his best to take Travis’s head off. It also is no big secret that Lutter is going to try his best to get Silva on the ground and into a game of submissions.

This fight along with the Silva/Monson fight more closely resembles what the old UFC attempted to prove. “What happens when a ground fighter fights a standup fighter?” Now I know, fighters nowadays are much more well rounded than their UFC 4 predecessors, but it seems a bit similar to me nonetheless.

On to Matt Serra…

Matt Serra won a very close split decision victory over Chris Lytle to become the welterweight division’s newest TUF champion. Serra seemed to be one of the favorites to win throughout the TUF season, as very few episodes didn’t have him as one of the centers of attention.

Serra’s game plan was much like Lutter’s. Stand and punch only long enough to secure the takedown, and then attempt to dominate the opponent on the ground. While Serra’s game plan worked well throughout his time on TUF, the same game plan simply won’t work against top 170-pound competition.

Since St. Pierre dethroned welterweight champ Matt Hughes Saturday night, it is now Serra’s task to fight Georges ‘Rush’ St. Pierre. I believe that Serra’s chances for victory are almost lower than Lutter’s. St. Pierre is a brutally strong man, and as we saw in Georges’ fight with Sean Sherk and his second fight with Matt Hughes he is nearly impossible to take down. If Serra is forced to stand with Georges it would in my estimation be a quick night for St. Pierre…even completely lopsided, with a win going to Georges.

Don’t get me wrong, Serra has great skills on the ground and some nice punch combinations when on the feet – just ask Karo Parisyan – but after seeing St. Pierre fight Saturday night, I feel sorry for anybody that has to go through him to get to a title.

I don’t know if Serra is able to make the 155 cut, but it seems to me that he could be a much larger (no pun intended) presence in the lightweight division than he could at 170. Din Thomas moved down to lightweight for his most recent fight and he looked phenomenal. Unless Serra physically can’t make it down to 155, I think lightweight is where he belongs. As we all know, the cut to 155 was pretty beneficial to UFC Lightweight Champion Sean Sherk.

Serra is a very talented fighter with great mental strength and self-confidence, but for Matt to be on top of the 170-pound division he would have to outperform Georges St. Pierre, and I simply don’t see that happening right now.

Serra and Lutter are both great competitors, great fighters and ‘TUF’ guys, but the two champions that they happen to be matched up with now are each at the top of their games, and a victory over either of these men at this point in time seems dubious at best.

source ([Only registered and activated users can see links])

libertywrestler
11-25-2006, 07:31 PM
yeah serra and lutter don't stand a chance unless they can get their opponents down in this fight, serra should drop to 155 after he loses to gsp

strife
11-25-2006, 07:53 PM
Lutter stands a chance, if he doesn't get caught going for the takedown and actually gets it I can see Silva having a tough time. However the fight is 5 rounds and Silva's cardio is better than Lutter's, I don't see Lutter winning but he has a much better chance than Serra unfortunately. Lutter will get caught going for a takedown and/or gas in the 3rd and get dropped. It's unfortunate Hughes didn't win (not that I wanted him, GSP all the way baby) because I wanted to see Serra possibly beat him seeing it woulda been a better matchup for him than GSP. GSP wins by execution.

welsh_lad_04
11-26-2006, 01:40 AM
i dont see serra having much chance after his ultimate fighter final and gsp`s form at the moment but hey its a fight and i wil watch it

brvheart
11-28-2006, 02:26 PM
I would say no on both....I just think Silva and GSP are in a higher class as this time then those two. I would like to think that Lutter has a slightly better chance then GSP....but I dont see him pulling it off.

welsh_lad_04
11-28-2006, 03:01 PM
personally i dont see serra or lutter beating st pierre or silva because they are on top of there game and there champions for a reason

keithpas
12-01-2006, 11:50 AM
Lutter impressed me on TUF but he did'nt fight anyone nearly as good as Silva. Serra's fighting style and body type make him very vunerable to GSP's strikes, I do not see Serra making it past the first round.

Dan0
01-26-2007, 01:48 PM
I think IF there is any chance, Lutter has it. Silva has been around the block, and has constantly improved. I think he earned his Black Belt (source ([Only registered and activated users can see links])) after the Chonan fight from the Nogueira JJ Camp (can anyone confirm), and after the Chonan fight he's had four straight KO's.

In his losses he's been submitted only twice, and of course everyone remembers the most dynamic submission (IMHO) seen in MMA (Chonan).

In Lutters' nine wins, he has submitted seven opponents, and KO'd one (and one decision). His BJJ is good, but I think it's gonna be VERY interesting to see how "The Spider" stands up to Lutter (or wrestles with him).

Easye1982
01-26-2007, 02:17 PM
I gave Lutter a big ol' Maybe...and Serra a "stay home" award (safer there)

welsh_lad_04
01-26-2007, 05:08 PM
personally i think lutter has a better chance at winning then serra

brvheart
01-26-2007, 05:12 PM
personally i think lutter has a better chance at winning then serra

agreed, but I think that Silva may prove to be to strong for Lutter.

Python
01-26-2007, 08:02 PM
I would put it more along the lines of Lutters fight will be a better fight than the Serra fight.....Better quality and longer maybe.

Easye1982
01-26-2007, 08:44 PM
I like Serra, and hope he wins....but chances are very slim.

Ace8028
01-27-2007, 02:24 AM
Lutter has a chance if he can get it to the ground but Serra on the other hand i don't give much of a chance I was too impressed with GSP's sprawl in his matches with Sherk, BJ, and Hughes(2) I don't see him getting GSP to the ground and am predicting a KO/TKO for GSP

jjmoneydawg
01-27-2007, 02:41 AM
To everyone saying Lutter could win if he gets Silva to the ground. You need to remember we have yet to see much of Silva's ground game. He is also a BJJ Black Belt. I would like to see that fight go to the ground. Both are bound to lose, if one or both pulls it off, they are beasts. :thumb:

Ace8028
01-27-2007, 02:53 AM
Yeah Silva is a black belt under the Nog Brothers so I'm not saying he's bad at BJJ its just that the only way i think Lutter has a shot is on the ground

Dan0
01-27-2007, 01:12 PM
To everyone saying Lutter could win if he gets Silva to the ground. You need to remember we have yet to see much of Silva's ground game. He is also a BJJ Black Belt. I would like to see that fight go to the ground. Both are bound to lose, if one or both pulls it off, they are beasts. :thumb:

The Spider was able to hang with Carlos Newton (who is a pretty fair JJ guy) before he TKO'd Newton in the first.

Plus, the Nog bros awarded Silva is black fairly recently, after Silva demonstrated he was able to roll the the Black Belts in the Camp. I don't remember seeing anyone other than the Nog's fighting with a Nog Black Belt before, and I'm inclined to give some credence to the award to Silva.

What do yall think????

Kanablz
01-27-2007, 02:01 PM
I really appluad both Lutter and Serra for their victories to get them to this stage but its kinda double edged....Yes anything can happen but they are fighting FIGHTERS THAT ARE BETTER THAN THEM........ That being said" I also love a upset :P "